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Which weather model is most accurate in Oklahoma City?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Oklahoma City at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the OKC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, NOAA GFS (1.51°C); at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 2.13°C at 1-day lead over this window.

Oklahoma City's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
GEM (Canada) 1.3° (-0.7°) 1.9° (-0.7°) 3.4° (-2.0°) 30
UKMO (UK) 1.3° (-0.6°) 2.0° (-0.7°) — 30
NOAA GFS 1.4° (-0.1°) 1.5° (-0.1°) 4.3° (-0.9°) 30
DWD ICON 1.7° (-1.0°) 2.1° (-1.5°) 3.4° (-1.8°) 30
ECMWF IFS 1.8° (-1.0°) 2.2° (-1.2°) 3.6° (-2.8°) 30
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.9° (-1.7°) 2.2° (-1.8°) 3.5° (-3.1°) 30
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 2.4° (-2.1°) 2.8° (-2.0°) 3.7° (-1.8°) 30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Oklahoma City point is the Will Rogers station (OKC), 12 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Will Rogers (OKC) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 15. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 20–32; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 18–31; it hit 25. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 17–28; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 20–32; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 16–29; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 23–26; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 18–27; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 14 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 20–23; it hit 28. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 28. GFS led (off 1.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 18–28; it hit 21. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 22. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 30. UKMO led (off 2.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 27–38; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 16–33; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 25–35; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 23–40; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 5°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 20–36; it hit 34. GFS led (off 1.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 23–33; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 1.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 23–35; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 16–28; it hit 34. GEM led (off 1.2°C); ICON ran 5°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 32–43; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 30–42; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 25–38; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 35–39; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 32–40; it hit 41. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 10°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 32–42; it hit 37. GFS led (off 1.9°C); ICON ran 5°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 36–44; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.7°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 25–39; it hit 39. AIFS led (off 0.8°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 20–37; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 27–43; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 33–42; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 34–43; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 35. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 14 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 35–42; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 33–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 40. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 39. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 31–45; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 40. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 36–46; it hit 42. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 34–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 1.1°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 22 3 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 37. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 6°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 35. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 30–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 31–42; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 1°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 27–44; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 33–35; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C).
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 40. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 14 days out the models said 29–43; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 1.8°C); ICON ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 14 days out the models said 29–38; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.9°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 14 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 14 days out the models said 31–42; it hit 39. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 29–45; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 32–47; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Sat Aug 1 14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 34–45; it hit 42. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 32–47; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C).
  • Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 35–47; it hit 40. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 33–48; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 35–47; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 38–43; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 36–45; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 36–44; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 30–43; it hit 35. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 31–44; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 42. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 35–41; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.

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