Which weather model is most accurate in Oklahoma City?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Oklahoma City at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the OKC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.
One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 2.81°C at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.94°C typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.1° (-0.6°) | 1.4° (-1.1°) | 1.8° (-1.3°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 1.1° (-0.1°) | 1.8° (-0.4°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.2° (-0.3°) | 1.4° (-0.1°) | 1.4° (+0.2°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 1.3° (+0.1°) | 1.7° (-0.7°) | — | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 1.4° (-0.9°) | 1.6° (-0.8°) | 1.5° (-0.7°) | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 1.6° (-1.5°) | 1.5° (-1.2°) | 2.2° (-1.5°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 2.6° (+2.6°) | 2.9° (+2.8°) | 2.8° (+2.5°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.8° (-1.1°) | 1.8° (-1.5°) | 2.3° (-1.9°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 0.9° (+0.0°) | 1.0° (+0.0°) | 1.2° (-0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Oklahoma City point is the Oklahoma City (Will Rogers) station (OKC), 12 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is OKC observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 35–42; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 33–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C).
- Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 40. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
- Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
- Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 31–45; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 1°C cold.
- Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 35. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
- Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
- Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 40. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold.
- Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 35–46; it hit 42. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
- Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 34–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 4°C cold.
- Sat Aug 22 3 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 4°C hot.
- Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 32–43; it hit 35. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 3°C hot.
- Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 34–44; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cold.
- Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 1°C hot.
- Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 36–42; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C).
- Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 32–41; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
- Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 27–44; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 1°C hot.
- Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C hot.
- Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
- Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C).
- Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 40. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Fri Aug 7 14 days out the models said 29–43; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold.
- Thu Aug 6 14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 2°C hot.
- Wed Aug 5 14 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
- Tue Aug 4 14 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.0°C).
- Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 29–40; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
- Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 32–47; it hit 35. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
- Sat Aug 1 14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C).
- Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 33–47; it hit 42. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cold.
- Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 32–44; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C).
- Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 35–44; it hit 40. ICON led (off 0.2°C).
- Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 34–46; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
- Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 31–44; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C hot.
- Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 30–41; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C).
- Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 29–41; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C hot.
- Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cold.
- Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 30–43; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.0°C).
- Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 31–45; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
- Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 42. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
- Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C hot.
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