Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Jul 20?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 35° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 37° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° hot.

3 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-17	38°	35°	37°	36°	40°	36°	36°	35–40°
2d · 2026-07-18	38°	35°	37°	38°	40°	37°	36°	35–40°
1d · 2026-07-19	38°	36°	37°	37°	38°	38°	37°	36–38°
0d · 2026-07-20	39°	37°	37°	37°	37°	38°	37°	37–39°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.