Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Aug 26?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

7 days out, 6 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 34° to 42°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 34° against the OKC observations, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° warm.

7 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 4°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
7d · 2026-08-19	35°	37°	34°	38°	42°	37°	—	34–42°
6d · 2026-08-20	34°	34°	34°	37°	37°	38°	36°	34–38°
5d · 2026-08-21	34°	33°	35°	35°	40°	34°	31°	31–40°
4d · 2026-08-22	33°	32°	35°	37°	40°	34°	36°	32–40°
3d · 2026-08-23	34°	34°	35°	38°	38°	35°	32°	32–38°
2d · 2026-08-24	34°	34°	35°	36°	39°	31°	35°	31–39°
1d · 2026-08-25	35°	35°	35°	36°	38°	35°	37°	35–38°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.