The Spread Maps Request an invite

Which weather model is most accurate in Orlando?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Orlando at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the ORL observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, NOAA AIGFS (AI) has been most accurate (typical miss 0.63°C); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, GEM (Canada) (1.09°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF IFS, which has run cool by about 1.59°C at 1-day lead over this window.

Orlando's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 0.6° (-0.2°) 1.0° (-0.1°) 1.6° (-0.3°) 30
DWD ICON 1.2° (-0.6°) 1.1° (-0.3°) — 30
UKMO (UK) 1.2° (-0.9°) 1.6° (-1.3°) — 30
GEM (Canada) 1.2° (-0.3°) 1.3° (-0.2°) 1.1° (-0.4°) 30
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.5° (-1.4°) 1.4° (-1.2°) 1.3° (-0.8°) 30
ECMWF IFS 1.7° (-1.6°) 1.6° (-1.3°) 1.8° (-1.3°) 30
NOAA GFS 1.8° (+0.8°) 2.0° (+1.5°) 2.4° (+1.7°) 30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Orlando point is the Executive Airport station (ORL), 4.6 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Executive Airport (ORL) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 25–28; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 25. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 14 days out the models said 26–33; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 27–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 1.0°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 30–32; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 30. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 31–33; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 26–36; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 35. GFS led (off 1.7°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 31–38; it hit 35. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 6°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 32–34; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 36. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 33–35; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 22 3 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 36. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 5°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.8°C); AIGFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 14 days out the models said 29–39; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 13 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 27–36; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 6°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 30. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.8°C); ICON ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 28–31; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 28–31; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.9°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.

Other cities

Atlanta, Georgia Berlin, State of Berlin Boston, Massachusetts Buffalo, New York Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Dallas, Texas Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Houston, Texas London, England Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Milan, Lombardy Minneapolis, Minnesota New Orleans, Louisiana New York, New York Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Paris, Île-de-France Region Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Phoenix, Arizona Salt Lake City, Utah San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Washington, District of Columbia

The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.