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Was the forecast right for Orlando on Tue Aug 25?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

6 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 33° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the ORL observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.

6 days out the models said 33–35; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-08-19 33° 34° 33° 34° 35° 34° 35° 33–35°
5d · 2026-08-20 33° 33° 34° 32° 35° 34° 33° 32–35°
4d · 2026-08-21 33° 34° 34° 33° 36° 34° 36° 33–36°
3d · 2026-08-22 33° 34° 34° 34° 36° 32° 34° 32–36°
2d · 2026-08-23 32° 34° 33° 34° 37° 35° 31° 31–37°
1d · 2026-08-24 33° 34° 32° 33° 36° 33° 34° 32–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.