The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Jul 20?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 30° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 31° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 3.6 mm of precipitation — rain.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 5° hot.

3 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 5°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-07-17 32° 30° 32° 33° 36° 32° 36° 30–36°
2d · 2026-07-18 32° 32° 30° 36° 36° 35° 34° 30–36°
1d · 2026-07-19 33° 32° 32° 35° 34° 33° 33° 32–35°
0d · 2026-07-20 32° 32° 31° 34° 36° 33° 34° 31–36°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.