Was the forecast right for Orlando on Mon Jul 20?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 31° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 31° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 3.6 mm of precipitation — rain.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 4° warm.

3 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.9°C); GEM ran 4°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-17	32°	32°	31°	33°	36°	32°	36°	31–36°
2d · 2026-07-18	32°	32°	30°	36°	36°	35°	34°	30–36°
1d · 2026-07-19	32°	33°	32°	35°	33°	33°	33°	32–35°
actual								31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.