Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Jul 30?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 25° to 30°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 29° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 12.2 mm of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-07-17 | 28° | 28° | 30° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–30° |
| 12d · 2026-07-18 | 31° | 33° | 33° | — | 35° | — | — | 31–35° |
| 11d · 2026-07-19 | 33° | 32° | 30° | — | 37° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 10d · 2026-07-20 | 28° | 29° | 34° | — | 33° | — | — | 28–34° |
| 9d · 2026-07-21 | 29° | 30° | 32° | 34° | 36° | — | — | 29–36° |
| 8d · 2026-07-22 | 33° | 29° | 31° | 33° | 35° | — | — | 29–35° |
| 7d · 2026-07-23 | 31° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 34° | — | 30–34° |
| 6d · 2026-07-24 | 29° | 28° | 29° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 28–34° |
| 5d · 2026-07-25 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 35° | 31° | 33° | 32° | 29–35° |
| 4d · 2026-07-26 | 31° | 30° | 30° | 32° | 33° | 31° | 31° | 30–33° |
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 29° | 31° | 29° | 33° | 31° | 30° | 29° | 29–33° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 28° | 31° | 29° | 29° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 28–31° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 27° | 31° | 29° | 32° | 33° | 30° | 30° | 27–33° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.