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Which weather model is most accurate in Charlotte?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Charlotte at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the CLT observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to UKMO (UK), which has run cool by about 2.02°C at 3-day lead over this window.

Charlotte's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 0.8° (-0.7°) 1.6° (-1.2°) 3.2° (-1.0°) 29
GEM (Canada) 0.9° (+0.1°) 1.5° (-1.3°) 3.1° (-1.3°) 29
NOAA GFS 0.9° (-0.4°) 1.4° (-0.7°) 3.0° (-0.5°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.1° (-1.0°) 1.3° (-1.0°) 2.8° (-0.9°) 29
DWD ICON 1.3° (-1.2°) 2.0° (-1.5°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 1.3° (-0.7°) 1.3° (-0.4°) 4.2° (-1.4°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.9° (-1.5°) 2.7° (-2.0°) — 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Charlotte point is the Charlotte Douglas station (CLT), 10 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Charlotte Douglas (CLT) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 12–29; it hit 30. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 12–27; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.8°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.8°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 18–26; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 19–22; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 16–26; it hit 24. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 12–20; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 21–23; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 23. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 19–26; it hit 26. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 21–26; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.8°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 22–29; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 17–28; it hit 30. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 14–23; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 22–33; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 18–30; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 17–27; it hit 17. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 19. ICON led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 19–24; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 21–24; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 19–30; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 21–34; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 24–36; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 23–33; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 27–39; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 30–42; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 27–38; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.4°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 20–38; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 13 days out the models said 25–40; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 12 days out the models said 33–38; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 11 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 10 days out the models said 27–37; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 9 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 30. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 8 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 31. ICON led (off 1.2°C); UKMO ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 7 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 6 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 5 days out the models said 27–33; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 4 days out the models said 27–33; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 19–33; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 24–35; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 31–38; it hit 35. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.8°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 29–37; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 13 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 30. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 12 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 5 11 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 10 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 9 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 8 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 30. GFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 7 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 5°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 6 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 5 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Jul 29 4 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Jul 28 3 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 4°C warm.

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