Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 22?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 19° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 31° against the CLT observations, with 4.1 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 25° | — | — | 28° | — | — | 25–28° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 19° | 22° | 24° | — | 22° | — | — | 19–24° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 28° | 20° | 20° | — | 26° | — | — | 20–28° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 16° | 21° | 22° | — | 20° | — | — | 16–22° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 23° | 22° | 32° | — | 23° | — | — | 22–32° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 32° | 22° | 26° | — | 19° | — | — | 19–32° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 27° | 21° | 34° | 29° | 29° | — | — | 21–34° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 28° | 19° | 29° | 26° | 26° | — | — | 19–29° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 25° | 21° | 24° | 30° | 29° | — | — | 21–30° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 26° | 20° | 28° | 23° | 20° | 32° | 25° | 20–32° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 27° | 27° | 28° | 26° | 31° | 26° | 28° | 26–31° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 26° | 24° | 24° | 25° | 27° | 22° | 22° | 22–27° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 26° | 25° | 28° | 32° | 25° | 25° | 25° | 25–32° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 27° | 27° | 31° | 30° | 29° | 29° | 27° | 27–31° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 29° | 29° | 29° | 31° | 30° | 29° | 30° | 29–31° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.