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Which weather model is most accurate in Tampa?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Tampa at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the TPA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, NOAA AIGFS (AI) (1.1°C).

No model shows a large standing warm or cool bias in this window.

Tampa's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 0.8° (+0.0°) 0.9° (+0.3°) 1.1° (+0.0°) 29
UKMO (UK) 0.9° (-0.0°) 1.1° (+0.1°) — 29
DWD ICON 1.0° (-0.3°) 1.2° (-0.0°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 1.0° (-0.2°) 1.4° (-0.1°) 1.4° (-0.1°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.1° (-0.8°) 1.1° (-0.8°) 1.4° (-0.6°) 29
NOAA GFS 1.3° (+0.7°) 1.6° (+0.6°) 1.7° (+1.2°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.4° (-0.6°) 1.4° (-0.6°) 1.9° (-0.9°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Tampa point is the Tampa International station (TPA), 8.0 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Tampa International (TPA) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 25–28; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 30–32; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 27–28; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 26–33; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 30. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); ICON ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.0°C).
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 31–33; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 31–32; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 31–35; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 13 days out the models said 32–34; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 12 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 32. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 11 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 10 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 9 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 8 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 7 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 6 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 5 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 4 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 3 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.

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