The Spread

Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Sep 5?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

11 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 31° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the TPA observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

11 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-25 32° 35° 31° — 36° — — 31–36°
10d · 2026-08-26 33° 33° 31° — 35° — — 31–35°
9d · 2026-08-27 33° 34° 32° — 34° — — 32–34°
8d · 2026-08-28 30° 33° 32° 32° 36° — — 30–36°
7d · 2026-08-29 29° 28° 31° 29° 33° — — 28–33°
6d · 2026-08-30 32° 32° 31° 32° 34° 36° — 31–36°
5d · 2026-08-31 31° 33° 32° 32° 35° 35° 30° 30–35°
4d · 2026-09-01 31° 33° 31° 33° 34° 32° 32° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-02 31° 32° 30° 34° 33° 32° 32° 30–34°
2d · 2026-09-03 32° 33° 32° 34° 34° 34° 32° 32–34°
1d · 2026-09-04 32° 33° 31° 34° 35° 34° 34° 31–35°
0d · 2026-09-05 34° 33° 32° 33° 35° 33° 33° 32–35°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.