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Which weather model is most accurate in Detroit?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Detroit at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DTW observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (2.57°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run warm by about 1.53°C at 1-day lead over this window.

Detroit's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 0.8° (-0.4°) 1.1° (-0.5°) 2.6° (-1.3°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 0.9° (-0.5°) 1.2° (-0.6°) 3.2° (-0.4°) 29
DWD ICON 1.0° (-0.3°) 1.3° (-0.4°) — 29
NOAA GFS 1.2° (+0.7°) 1.5° (+0.5°) 3.3° (-0.1°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.4° (-0.7°) 1.7° (-0.9°) 3.4° (-1.4°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.4° (-0.4°) 1.9° (-0.6°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 1.8° (+1.5°) 1.9° (-0.4°) 2.8° (-0.0°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Detroit point is the Detroit Metro station (DTW), 26 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Detroit Metro (DTW) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 10–18; it hit 21. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 14–23; it hit 18. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 9–22; it hit 19. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 15–21; it hit 31. GEM led (off 1.3°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 14–24; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 12–14; it hit 17. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 13–23; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 17–23; it hit 20. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 12–21; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 18–23; it hit 26. GEM led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 16–21; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 14–23; it hit 18. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 18–24; it hit 24. GFS led (off 1.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 17–20; it hit 18. GFS led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 21–24; it hit 19. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 15–25; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.8°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 18–27; it hit 22. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 18–30; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 18–26; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 12–24; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 23. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 16–23; it hit 20. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 14–28; it hit 21. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 18–31; it hit 18. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 19–22; it hit 18. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 20–25; it hit 16. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 13–20; it hit 17. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 7°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 14–26; it hit 18. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 24. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 20–24; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 20–30; it hit 23. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 22–32; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 22–35; it hit 22. ICON led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 25–31; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 21–28; it hit 28. GFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 24. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.9°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 13 days out the models said 22–33; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 12 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 11 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 10 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 9 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 31. ICON led (off 1.0°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 8 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 7 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 6 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 30. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 5 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 24. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 6°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 4 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 3 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.

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