Was the forecast right for Detroit on Wed Sep 2?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
8 days out, 5 models put Detroit's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 24° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 36° against the DTW observations, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 28° | 24° | 27° | 33° | 28° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 25° | 29° | 32° | 25° | 36° | — | — | 25–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 28° | 28° | 28° | 31° | 34° | 30° | — | 28–34° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 30° | 34° | 36° | 33° | 39° | 32° | 30° | 30–39° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 31° | 33° | 37° | 36° | 38° | 36° | 34° | 31–38° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 33° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 34° | 33–37° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 32° | 33° | 33° | 34° | 37° | 35° | 34° | 32–37° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 32° | 34° | 33° | 36° | 36° | 35° | 34° | 32–36° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 31° | 33° | 31° | 35° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 31–35° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.