Where the weather models disagree in Detroit
Detroit, DTW station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Sep 11, where 5 of them put Detroit's high anywhere from 20° to 34° — AIFS coldest, GEM hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 28° to 36° | 8° | — | AIFS 28° | GFS 36° | 34° to 36° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 25° to 29° | 4° | — | GFS 25° | UKMO 29° | 27° to 31° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 24° to 27° | 3° | — | GEM 24° | UKMO 27° | 25° to 28° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 25° to 26° | 1° | — | GFS 25° | ICON 26° | 24° to 28° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 25° to 27° | 2° | — | UKMO 25° | ICON 27° | 26° to 30° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 23° to 30° | 7° | — | GFS 23° | ICON 30° | 23° to 35° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 26° to 33° | 7° | — | AIFS 26° | AIGFS 33° | 31° to 36° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 26° to 34° | 8° | — | GFS 26° | GEM 34° | 24° to 36° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 20° to 34° | 14° | — | AIFS 20° | GEM 34° | 21° to 36° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 20° to 33° | 13° | — | ECMWF 20° | AIGFS 33° | 24° to 34° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 22° to 34° | 12° | — | ECMWF 22° | AIGFS 34° | 22° to 35° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 23° to 30° | 7° | — | AIFS 23° | GFS 30° | 20° to 32° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 23° to 26° | 3° | — | AIGFS 23° | ECMWF 26° | 21° to 34° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 17° to 30° | 13° | — | GFS 17° | ECMWF 30° | 21° to 33° |
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