Where the weather models disagree in Detroit
Detroit, DTW station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:51 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sat Oct 31, where 4 of them put Detroit's high anywhere from 49° to 67° — ECMWF coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 13-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 60° to 63° | 3° | 4° | AIFS 60° | GFS 63° | 59° to 63° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 63° to 67° | 4° | 5° | UKMO 63° | GFS 67° | 64° to 68° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 61° to 67° | 6° | 4° | ECMWF 61° | GFS 67° | 63° to 68° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 61° to 67° | 6° | 5° | UKMO 61° | GFS 67° | 64° to 68° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 62° to 70° | 8° | 6° | ICON 62° | GFS 70° | 61° to 69° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 53° to 63° | 10° | 7° | ECMWF 53° | AIFS 63° | 53° to 68° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 56° to 63° | 7° | 8° | ECMWF 56° | AIGFS 63° | 53° to 66° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 58° to 68° | 10° | 7° | ECMWF 58° | AIFS 68° | 56° to 67° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 59° to 69° | 10° | 9° | GFS 59° | AIGFS 69° | 56° to 71° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 58° to 62° | 4° | 13° | AIFS 58° | AIGFS 62° | 50° to 68° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 57° to 68° | 11° | 11° | ECMWF 57° | GFS 68° | 48° to 67° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 54° to 68° | 14° | 12° | AIGFS 54° | AIFS 68° | 48° to 71° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 55° to 67° | 12° | 13° | ECMWF 55° | GFS 67° | 51° to 70° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 49° to 67° | 18° | 13° | ECMWF 49° | GFS 67° | 54° to 69° |
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