Where the weather models disagree in London
London, Heathrow station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-19T00:53 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Thu Oct 22, where 7 of them put London's high anywhere from 52° to 61° — GEM coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 3-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 55° to 57° | 2° | 3° | AIFS 55° | GFS 57° | 56° to 58° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 53° to 56° | 3° | 4° | AIFS 53° | GFS 56° | 54° to 56° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 53° to 59° | 6° | 5° | AIFS 53° | AIGFS 59° | 52° to 56° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 52° to 61° | 9° | 5° | GEM 52° | GFS 61° | 57° to 62° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 54° to 58° | 4° | 5° | GEM 54° | GFS 58° | 54° to 57° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 7 | 54° to 62° | 8° | 6° | GEM 54° | ICON 62° | 51° to 60° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 6 | 55° to 62° | 7° | 6° | AIFS 55° | AIGFS 62° | 52° to 64° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 55° to 63° | 8° | 6° | GEM 55° | ECMWF 63° | 51° to 65° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 5 | 55° to 64° | 9° | 6° | GEM 55° | ECMWF 64° | 52° to 61° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 53° to 58° | 5° | 8° | GFS 53° | AIFS 58° | 52° to 60° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 54° to 58° | 4° | 6° | GFS 54° | AIFS 58° | 52° to 59° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 54° to 58° | 4° | 7° | GFS 54° | ECMWF 58° | 53° to 62° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 54° to 58° | 4° | 8° | GFS 54° | AIFS 58° | 53° to 60° |
| Sun Nov 1 | 4 | 53° to 57° | 4° | 8° | AIFS 53° | AIGFS 57° | 52° to 61° |
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