Where the weather models disagree in Minneapolis
Minneapolis, MSP station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Wed Oct 28, where 4 of them put Minneapolis's high anywhere from 45° to 69° — AIGFS coldest, ECMWF hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 10-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 63° to 68° | 5° | 5° | GEM 63° | GFS 68° | 64° to 67° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 62° to 66° | 4° | 6° | UKMO 62° | GFS 66° | 62° to 66° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 64° to 68° | 4° | 6° | GEM 64° | GFS 68° | 64° to 68° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 63° to 72° | 9° | 7° | UKMO 63° | GFS 72° | 67° to 71° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 67° to 73° | 6° | 7° | UKMO 67° | AIFS 73° | 65° to 72° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 65° to 76° | 11° | 10° | GEM 65° | AIGFS 76° | 58° to 73° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 67° to 76° | 9° | 9° | GFS 67° | AIGFS 76° | 64° to 74° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 50° to 65° | 15° | 10° | AIFS 50° | AIGFS 65° | 54° to 69° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 47° to 65° | 18° | 12° | AIFS 47° | ECMWF 65° | 47° to 66° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 51° to 66° | 15° | 13° | AIGFS 51° | ECMWF 66° | 46° to 69° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 45° to 69° | 24° | 12° | AIGFS 45° | ECMWF 69° | 46° to 67° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 48° to 64° | 16° | 13° | AIGFS 48° | ECMWF 64° | 48° to 66° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 41° to 57° | 16° | 15° | AIFS 41° | GFS 57° | 47° to 65° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 42° to 55° | 13° | 15° | AIGFS 42° | ECMWF 55° | 43° to 63° |
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