Where the weather models disagree in San Diego
San Diego, Lindbergh Field station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Thu Sep 10, where 5 of them put San Diego's high anywhere from 77° to 96° — AIGFS coldest, ECMWF hottest.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 75° to 83° | 8° | — | GFS 75° | UKMO 83° | 77° to 78° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 76° to 84° | 8° | — | GFS 76° | ECMWF 84° | 77° to 79° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 82° to 90° | 8° | — | GFS 82° | ECMWF 90° | 80° to 84° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 80° to 91° | 11° | — | GFS 80° | ECMWF 91° | 78° to 87° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 83° to 96° | 13° | — | GFS 83° | UKMO 96° | 80° to 88° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 83° to 95° | 12° | — | GFS 83° | UKMO 95° | 80° to 89° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 82° to 96° | 14° | — | GEM 82° | ECMWF 96° | 75° to 88° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 77° to 96° | 19° | — | AIGFS 77° | ECMWF 96° | 74° to 85° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 76° to 90° | 14° | — | AIGFS 76° | AIFS 90° | 73° to 84° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 75° to 91° | 16° | — | GFS 75° | AIFS 91° | 73° to 81° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 74° to 93° | 19° | — | GFS 74° | ECMWF 93° | 72° to 80° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 76° to 91° | 15° | — | GFS 76° | AIFS 91° | 73° to 85° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 76° to 91° | 15° | — | GFS 76° | AIFS 91° | 72° to 88° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 77° to 90° | 13° | — | GFS 77° | AIFS 90° | 73° to 90° |
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