Where the weather models disagree in Los Angeles
Los Angeles, Dodger Stadium station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Wed Sep 9, where 6 of them put Los Angeles's high anywhere from 86° to 107° — GEM coldest, ICON hottest. That spread is greater than average for forecasts with a 6-day lead at this location.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 75° to 84° | 9° | 10° | AIGFS 75° | GEM 84° | 75° to 78° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 77° to 85° | 8° | 12° | AIGFS 77° | GEM 85° | 76° to 79° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 83° to 92° | 9° | 12° | AIGFS 83° | ICON 92° | 78° to 82° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 77° to 90° | 13° | 11° | GEM 77° | ICON 90° | 78° to 84° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 86° to 94° | 8° | 10° | AIGFS 86° | UKMO 94° | 80° to 87° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 86° to 94° | 8° | 11° | AIGFS 86° | ICON 94° | 79° to 89° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 86° to 107° | 21° | 12° | GEM 86° | ICON 107° | 75° to 87° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 77° to 93° | 16° | 8° | AIGFS 77° | ECMWF 93° | 72° to 89° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 73° to 91° | 18° | 8° | AIGFS 73° | AIFS 91° | 73° to 86° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 73° to 93° | 20° | 11° | AIGFS 73° | AIFS 93° | 70° to 83° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 76° to 94° | 18° | 11° | AIGFS 76° | AIFS 94° | 72° to 86° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 82° to 94° | 12° | 12° | AIGFS 82° | AIFS 94° | 74° to 90° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 80° to 93° | 13° | 12° | ECMWF 80° | AIFS 93° | 75° to 95° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 78° to 93° | 15° | 13° | ECMWF 78° | AIFS 93° | 73° to 97° |
Other locations
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These location pages are public while the rest is gated.