Which weather model is most accurate in Los Angeles?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Los Angeles at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the FHMC1 observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.
One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 10.01°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.03°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF IFS | 1.5° (-0.2°) | 1.6° (+0.2°) | 3.9° (-2.5°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 1.7° (-0.9°) | 1.9° (+0.1°) | 2.5° (-0.8°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 1.8° (-1.6°) | 2.5° (-2.3°) | — | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 1.9° (+1.7°) | 1.8° (-0.3°) | 2.5° (+0.0°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 3.2° (+3.1°) | 4.4° (+4.3°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 5.2° (-5.2°) | 4.4° (-4.3°) | 5.0° (-4.9°) | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 9.3° (-9.3°) | 10.0° (-10.0°) | 10.3° (-10.3°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 4.7° (-4.7°) | 5.2° (-5.1°) | 6.2° (-6.2°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.0° (-0.0°) | 1.5° (+0.0°) | 2.3° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Los Angeles point is the Los Angeles Downtown station (FHMC1), 1.4 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is FHMC1 observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Tue Sep 1 9 days out the models said 82–92; it hit 84. GFS led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cold.
- Mon Aug 31 8 days out the models said 78–92; it hit 86. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cold.
- Sun Aug 30 7 days out the models said 82–96; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cold.
- Sat Aug 29 6 days out the models said 85–103; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cold.
- Fri Aug 28 5 days out the models said 84–108; it hit 97. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cold.
- Thu Aug 27 4 days out the models said 82–104; it hit 94. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cold.
- Wed Aug 26 3 days out the models said 84–105; it hit 98. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cold.
- Thu Aug 20 13 days out the models said 78–85; it hit 95. GFS led (off 1.7°F); AIGFS ran 15°F cold.
- Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 75–87; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 1.3°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cold.
- Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 94. GFS led (off 1.3°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cold.
- Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 79–90; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 3.3°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cold.
- Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 77–90; it hit 89. GFS led (off 3.6°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cold.
- Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 86. ECMWF led (off 3.0°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cold.
- Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 77–90; it hit 84. ECMWF led (off 2.2°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cold.
- Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 75–86; it hit 86. GFS led (off 2.0°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cold.
- Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 78–91; it hit 89. GFS led (off 3.1°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cold.
- Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 78–87; it hit 91. GFS led (off 4.6°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cold.
- Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 72–87; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 2.7°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cold.
- Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 80–87; it hit 96. GFS led (off 1.5°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cold.
- Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 95. GFS led (off 3.0°F); AIGFS ran 16°F cold.
- Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 82–93; it hit 94. GFS led (off 1.7°F); AIGFS ran 17°F cold.
- Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 82–94; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cold.
- Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cold.
- Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cold.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 1.8°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cold.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 86–95; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 87–97; it hit 96. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 16°F cold.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 85–94; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 1.0°F); AIGFS ran 16°F cold.
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 83–92; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 1.8°F); AIGFS ran 15°F cold.
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.