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Which weather model is most accurate in Los Angeles?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Wed Oct 14

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Los Angeles at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the FHMC1 observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14), for daily high temperature.

One day out, ECMWF IFS has been most accurate (typical miss 1.41°F); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, NOAA GFS (5.14°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 7.51°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Los Angeles's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF IFS 1.4° (+0.0°) 2.4° (+0.5°) 6.1° (-4.4°) 27
NOAA GFS 2.3° (-0.5°) 2.8° (-0.9°) 5.1° (-0.8°) 27
GEM (Canada) 2.5° (+2.1°) 3.0° (+1.4°) 6.2° (+2.3°) 27
UKMO (UK) 2.7° (-2.6°) 3.3° (-3.1°) — 27
DWD ICON 3.1° (+1.8°) 3.6° (+2.1°) — 27
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 5.2° (-5.2°) 5.2° (-5.2°) 6.3° (-5.4°) 27
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 7.0° (-6.8°) 7.5° (-7.5°) 8.1° (-7.1°) 27

Method, honestly

The Spread's Los Angeles point is the Dodger Stadium station (FHMC1), 1.4 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Dodger Stadium (FHMC1) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 66–85; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 80–91; it hit 75. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 76–97; it hit 67. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 77–95; it hit 73. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 78–101; it hit 81. ECMWF led (off 1.1°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 84–100; it hit 87. GFS led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 80–102; it hit 95. ICON led (off 1.5°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 84–94; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 81–91; it hit 101. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 79–95; it hit 104. GEM led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 75–99; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 80–101; it hit 104. ECMWF led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 79–101; it hit 103. GEM led (off 1.3°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 73–88; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 8°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 79–84; it hit 86. ICON led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 80–95; it hit 87. AIGFS led (off 1.0°F); ICON ran 10°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 13 days out the models said 82–94; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 13 days out the models said 76–84; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 77–92; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 73–84; it hit 85. GFS led (off 2.3°F); ICON ran 6°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 74–83; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 10°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 79–92; it hit 87. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 72–83; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 79. ICON led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 78–94; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 76–91; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 72–91; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 76–93; it hit 80. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 80–91; it hit 81. GEM led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 73–90; it hit 85. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 82–93; it hit 85. ECMWF led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 77–91; it hit 88. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 72–86; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 75–91; it hit 98. ICON led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 74–91; it hit 105. GEM led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 10°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 92. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 8°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 75–89; it hit 93. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 77–93; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 13°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 82–92; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 84–93; it hit 84. ICON led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 84–93; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 83–96; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 84. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 84–96; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 85–96; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 86–103; it hit 96. ICON led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 85–103; it hit 97. ICON led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 83–104; it hit 94. GFS led (off 2.8°F); ICON ran 10°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 86–104; it hit 98. UKMO led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 20 14 days out the models said 77–93; it hit 95. UKMO led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 72–89; it hit 97. GFS led (off 2.4°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 74–93; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 78–88; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 75–91; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 2.8°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 78–88; it hit 86. GEM led (off 1.5°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 81–86; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 2.0°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 76–84; it hit 86. GEM led (off 2.9°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 78–96; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 4.0°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 77–93; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 4.3°F); AIGFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 73–89; it hit 94. UKMO led (off 3.1°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 80–85; it hit 96. GEM led (off 2.4°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 79–89; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 2.3°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 80–93; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 3.2°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 83–95; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 84–92; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 83–94; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 83–94; it hit 92. GEM led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 12°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 86–96; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 86–96; it hit 96. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 84–94; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 14°F cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 84–92; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 13°F cool.

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