Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Oct 18?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 86° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 72° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 86° | 92° | 96° | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 93° | 74° | 91° | — | 95° | — | — | 74–95° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 76° | 84° | 79° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 83° | 83° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 81° | 93° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–93° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 89° | 80° | 88° | 94° | 88° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 88° | 91° | 85° | 92° | 91° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 92° | 89° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 83° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 83–93° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 86° | 84° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 84–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 85° | 84° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 88° | 87° | 84–90° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 84° | 83° | 87° | 90° | 85° | 87° | 89° | 83–90° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 84° | 82° | 89° | 91° | 86° | 86° | 88° | 82–91° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 84° | 81° | 89° | 92° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 81–92° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.