Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Aug 11?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 77° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 4.3°. AIGFS ran 11° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 75° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 80° | 77° | 82° | — | 93° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 81° | 79° | 84° | — | 95° | — | — | 79–95° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 80° | 77° | 86° | — | 83° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 83° | 74° | 84° | — | 83° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 75° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 82° | 78° | 82° | 91° | 90° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 80° | 86° | 91° | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 79° | 86° | 91° | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 81° | 87° | 92° | 91° | 83° | 87° | 81–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 82° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 82° | 88° | 82–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 84° | 80° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 83° | 82° | 80–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 80° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 80–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 79° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 79–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 84° | 80° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 87° | 80–87° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.