Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Oct 23?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 74° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 74° against the FHMC1 observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.7°. GEM ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 79° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 85° | 74° | — | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 74° | 73° | 80° | — | 83° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 74° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 77° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 76° | 74° | 72° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 70° | 70° | 75° | 79° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 71° | 70° | 78° | 74° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 71° | 68° | 79° | 74° | 73° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 70° | 68° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 71° | 73° | 68–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 73° | 73° | 70–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 70° | 70° | 70° | 74° | 75° | 70° | 75° | 70–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 70° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 73° | 71° | 70° | 66–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 70° | 67° | 70° | 65° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 65–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 69° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 66–71° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.