Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Oct 21?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 71° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 73° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.19 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 79° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 71° | 87° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 75° | 89° | 85° | — | 84° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 86° | 89° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 74° | 78° | 75° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 75° | 72° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 77° | 68° | 87° | 75° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 70° | 68° | 69° | 60° | 75° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 65° | 85° | 67° | 69° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 66° | 69° | 65° | 70° | 66° | 63° | 63–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 68° | 68° | 72° | 74° | 69° | 70° | 73° | 68–74° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 75° | 71° | 77° | 78° | 69° | 77° | 75° | 69–78° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 76° | 72° | 71° | 64° | 74° | 76° | 74° | 64–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 72° | 71° | 69° | 71° | 76° | 72° | 74° | 69–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 71° | 71° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 70–74° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.