Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Aug 27?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
5 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 83° to 104°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 94° against the FHMC1 observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.8°. ICON ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 93° | 83° | 104° | 103° | 93° | 103° | 101° | 83–104° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 100° | 82° | 104° | 103° | 95° | 105° | 97° | 82–105° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 95° | 83° | 103° | 105° | 93° | 104° | 96° | 83–105° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 84° | 100° | 100° | 93° | 104° | 92° | 84–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 84° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 104° | 90° | 84–104° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.