Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Aug 27?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
5 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 28° to 40°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 34° against the FHMC1 observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. ICON ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 34° | 28° | 40° | 39° | 34° | 40° | 38° | 28–40° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 38° | 28° | 40° | 39° | 35° | 41° | 36° | 28–41° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 35° | 28° | 40° | 41° | 34° | 40° | 36° | 28–41° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 34° | 29° | 38° | 38° | 34° | 40° | 33° | 29–40° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 33° | 29° | 37° | 38° | 36° | 40° | 32° | 29–40° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.