Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Aug 20?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Aug 20 high anywhere from 77° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIGFS ran 14° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-05 | — | 73° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 14d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 77° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-07 | 87° | 75° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-08 | 81° | 75° | 85° | — | 91° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-09 | 80° | 79° | 82° | — | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-10 | 89° | 85° | 95° | — | 89° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-11 | 89° | 81° | 82° | 87° | 89° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-12 | 90° | 81° | 87° | 87° | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-13 | 91° | 78° | 85° | 92° | 85° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-14 | 89° | 82° | 90° | 98° | 96° | 87° | — | 82–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-15 | 87° | 81° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 91° | 90° | 81–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-16 | 87° | 78° | 95° | 94° | 94° | 88° | 93° | 78–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-17 | 87° | 79° | 96° | 93° | 95° | 88° | 93° | 79–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-18 | 85° | 79° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 86° | 93° | 79–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-19 | 85° | 81° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 87° | 94° | 81–94° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.