Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Aug 28?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
6 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 85° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 97° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIGFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-22 | 92° | 85° | 103° | 99° | 96° | 100° | 97° | 85–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 85° | 100° | 96° | 96° | 100° | 92° | 85–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-24 | 92° | 86° | 107° | 94° | 94° | 101° | 103° | 86–107° |
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 92° | 84° | 103° | 98° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 84–103° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 93° | 84° | 100° | 95° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 84–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 87° | 99° | 99° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 87–99° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.