Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Oct 8?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 80° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 95° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.5°. AIGFS ran 11° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 96° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 96–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 94° | 80° | 102° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–102° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 96° | 98° | 87° | — | 89° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 95° | 81° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 101° | 89° | 99° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–101° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 104° | 100° | 102° | — | 95° | — | — | 95–104° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 104° | 84° | 95° | 102° | 104° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 95° | 97° | 95° | 103° | 102° | — | — | 95–103° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 89° | 88° | 94° | 103° | 95° | — | — | 88–103° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 85° | 89° | 92° | 102° | 98° | 102° | 86° | 85–102° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 85° | 83° | 93° | 98° | 92° | 100° | 92° | 83–100° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 87° | 82° | 97° | 99° | 92° | 99° | 90° | 82–99° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 87° | 81° | 94° | 100° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 81–100° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 87° | 82° | 92° | 97° | 93° | 95° | 92° | 82–97° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 84° | 93° | 97° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 84–97° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.