Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Sep 21?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 78° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 79° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 76° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 83° | 78° | — | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 75° | 84° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 86° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 76° | 75° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 73° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 76° | 84° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 76° | 75° | 77° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 73° | 73° | 79° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 73° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 73–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 72° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 72–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 72° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 72–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 74° | 72° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 76° | 72–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 75° | 72° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 77° | 72–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 75° | 73° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 73–80° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.