Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Oct 4?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 75° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 102° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 76° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 99° | 75° | 81° | — | 93° | — | — | 75–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 80° | 77° | 92° | — | 95° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 90° | 93° | — | 100° | — | — | 82–100° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 84° | 80° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 91° | 84° | — | 97° | — | — | 81–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 87° | 91° | 83° | 92° | 91° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 92° | 90° | 86° | 97° | 95° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 94° | 95° | 85° | 100° | 100° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 92° | 97° | 99° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 98° | 92–103° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 92° | 91° | 101° | 100° | 102° | 106° | 98° | 91–106° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 96° | 94° | 100° | 98° | 100° | 102° | 98° | 94–102° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 97° | 97° | 102° | 103° | 101° | 102° | 101° | 97–103° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 97° | 98° | 102° | 104° | 100° | 102° | 100° | 97–104° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 97° | 96° | 102° | 105° | 101° | 103° | 100° | 96–105° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.