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Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Oct 4?

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations

14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 24° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.

14 days out the models said 24–37; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-19 — 25° — — 28° — — 25–28°
14d · 2026-09-20 37° 24° 27° — 34° — — 24–37°
13d · 2026-09-21 27° 25° 33° — 35° — — 25–35°
12d · 2026-09-22 28° 32° 34° — 38° — — 28–38°
11d · 2026-09-23 29° 27° 30° — 32° — — 27–32°
10d · 2026-09-24 27° 33° 29° — 36° — — 27–36°
9d · 2026-09-25 31° 33° 28° 33° 33° — — 28–33°
8d · 2026-09-26 34° 32° 30° 36° 35° — — 30–36°
7d · 2026-09-27 34° 35° 30° 38° 38° — — 30–38°
6d · 2026-09-28 34° 36° 37° 39° 39° 40° 37° 34–40°
5d · 2026-09-29 34° 33° 38° 38° 39° 41° 36° 33–41°
4d · 2026-09-30 36° 35° 38° 37° 38° 39° 36° 35–39°
3d · 2026-10-01 36° 36° 39° 39° 38° 39° 38° 36–39°
2d · 2026-10-02 36° 36° 39° 40° 38° 39° 38° 36–40°
1d · 2026-10-03 36° 36° 39° 40° 38° 39° 38° 36–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.