Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Oct 3?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 80° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 102°. The day verified at 104° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 85° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 99° | 80° | 101° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 95° | 85° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 79° | 77° | 89° | — | 101° | — | — | 77–101° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 88° | 85° | 85° | — | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 80° | 86° | — | 83° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 86° | 79° | 84° | 84° | 80° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 89° | 77° | 84° | 83° | 78° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 91° | 90° | 84° | 97° | 93° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 92° | 96° | 92° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 97° | 92–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 94° | 96° | 102° | 97° | 99° | 102° | 96° | 94–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 96° | 97° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 103° | 97° | 96–103° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 98° | 97° | 103° | 103° | 99° | 101° | 98° | 97–103° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 98° | 96° | 103° | 103° | 100° | 101° | 100° | 96–103° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 98° | 97° | 103° | 103° | 100° | 102° | 102° | 97–103° |
| actual | 104° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.