Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Oct 11?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 77° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 73° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 78° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 78–97° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 95° | 81° | 95° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 94° | 81° | 99° | — | 91° | — | — | 81–99° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 94° | 84° | — | 96° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 66° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 75° | 74° | 78° | — | 92° | — | — | 74–92° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 69° | 80° | 75° | 100° | 82° | — | — | 69–100° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 76° | 73° | 81° | 85° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 72° | 71° | 82° | 81° | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 80° | 88° | 87° | 74–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 75° | 77° | 75° | 83° | 74° | 81° | 74–83° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 70° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 72° | 70–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 72° | 80° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 70–80° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 70° | 73° | 70° | 77° | 78° | 74° | 72° | 70–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 71° | 75° | 71° | 76° | 80° | 77° | 73° | 71–80° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.