Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Oct 11?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 25° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 24°. The day verified at 23° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 25° | — | — | 36° | — | — | 25–36° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 35° | 27° | 35° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–35° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 35° | 27° | 37° | — | 33° | — | — | 27–37° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 30° | 34° | 29° | — | 36° | — | — | 29–36° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 23° | 19° | 25° | — | 28° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 24° | 23° | 26° | — | 33° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 21° | 26° | 24° | 38° | 28° | — | — | 21–38° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 20° | 25° | 23° | 27° | 29° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 22° | 22° | 28° | 27° | 29° | — | — | 22–29° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 25° | 24° | 23° | 26° | 27° | 31° | 31° | 23–31° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 24° | 24° | 25° | 24° | 28° | 23° | 27° | 23–28° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 21° | 25° | 26° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 22° | 21–27° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 21° | 22° | 26° | 24° | 24° | 26° | 23° | 21–26° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 21° | 23° | 21° | 25° | 26° | 23° | 22° | 21–26° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 22° | 24° | 22° | 25° | 26° | 25° | 23° | 22–26° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.