Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Oct 20?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Tue Oct 20 high anywhere from 72° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the FHMC1 observations — fog.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-05 | — | 82° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 14d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 85° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 13d · 2026-10-07 | 84° | 72° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-08 | 74° | 79° | 86° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-09 | 79° | 72° | 76° | — | 78° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 10d · 2026-10-10 | 73° | 82° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 9d · 2026-10-11 | 76° | 72° | 75° | 82° | 80° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 8d · 2026-10-12 | — | 70° | 79° | 88° | 69° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 7d · 2026-10-13 | 70° | 69° | 70° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-14 | 71° | 67° | 85° | 80° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 67–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-15 | 71° | 67° | 79° | 74° | 70° | 70° | 73° | 67–79° |
| 4d · 2026-10-16 | 72° | 70° | 75° | 81° | 76° | 81° | 77° | 70–81° |
| 3d · 2026-10-17 | 79° | 74° | 80° | 82° | 77° | 82° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 2d · 2026-10-18 | 79° | 75° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 83° | 77° | 75–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-19 | 78° | 75° | 82° | 84° | 81° | 84° | 78° | 75–84° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.