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Which weather model is most accurate in San Antonio?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for San Antonio at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the SAT observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF IFS (3.67°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 2.73°F at 1-day lead over this window.

San Antonio's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
UKMO (UK) 1.9° (-1.3°) 2.3° (-1.2°) — 29
DWD ICON 2.0° (-0.6°) 2.8° (-0.1°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 2.1° (-0.7°) 2.6° (-0.3°) 3.7° (-1.9°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.2° (-1.3°) 2.6° (-1.1°) 4.9° (-3.6°) 29
NOAA GFS 2.2° (-0.3°) 2.1° (-0.1°) 5.5° (-1.5°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.4° (-2.0°) 2.6° (-2.2°) 4.2° (-3.0°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 3.0° (-2.7°) 2.8° (-2.6°) 5.0° (-2.6°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's San Antonio point is the San Antonio International station (SAT), 8 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at San Antonio International (SAT) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 74–84; it hit 75. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 6°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 74–88; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 70–85; it hit 95. GEM led (off 0.8°F); GFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 72–85; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 75–85; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 73–88; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 78–84; it hit 89. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 13 days out the models said 77–85; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 70–84; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 84–91; it hit 90. GFS led (off 1.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 78–88; it hit 89. GEM led (off 1.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 74–93; it hit 87. GFS led (off 1.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 74–93; it hit 80. AIFS led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 71–88; it hit 80. GFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 86–97; it hit 80. GFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 88–98; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 79–95; it hit 95. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 87–96; it hit 97. AIFS led (off 4.3°F); UKMO ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 88–97; it hit 96. ICON led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 87–93; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 80–93; it hit 95. GFS led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 78–98; it hit 96. GFS led (off 1.2°F); UKMO ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 89–97; it hit 95. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 84–97; it hit 97. ICON led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 81–99; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 88–96; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 2.3°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 75–100; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 86–96; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 94–96; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 1.1°F); GFS ran 9°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 92–98; it hit 98. GEM led (off 1.9°F); UKMO ran 8°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 91–103; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 90–98; it hit 101. GFS led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 95–101; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.8°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 86–103; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 83–97; it hit 100. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 88–102; it hit 100. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 84–102; it hit 98. GFS led (off 1.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 96–103; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 87–99; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 13 days out the models said 86–100; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 12 days out the models said 92–99; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 1.3°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 11 days out the models said 98–100; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 10 days out the models said 93–101; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 9 days out the models said 96–100; it hit 100. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 8 days out the models said 97–100; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.1°F).
  • Tue Sep 1 7 days out the models said 98–101; it hit 97. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 6 days out the models said 94–101; it hit 97. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 5 days out the models said 96–101; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 4 days out the models said 93–102; it hit 98. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 3 days out the models said 92–102; it hit 100. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.

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