Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Mon Sep 7?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 86° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 98° against the SAT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 98° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 97° | 94° | — | 109° | — | — | 92–109° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 97° | 96° | — | 102° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 98° | 100° | 98° | — | 95° | — | — | 95–100° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 94° | 97° | 96° | 98° | — | — | 94–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 96° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 102° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 96° | 97° | 93° | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 93° | 92° | 94° | 101° | 101° | 99° | 92–101° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 94° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 94° | 88° | 88–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 93° | 96° | 96° | 98° | 91° | 100° | 91–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 94° | 95° | 94° | 99° | 96° | 97° | 94–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 98° | 94° | 96° | 95° | 96° | 96° | 94° | 94–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 98° | 95° | 98° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 95–98° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.