Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Mon Sep 14?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 89° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 100° against the SAT observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 82° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 98° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 96° | 89° | — | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 97° | 98° | 83° | — | 86° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 96° | 98° | 91° | — | 101° | — | — | 91–101° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 93° | 89° | 95° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 96° | 89° | 97° | — | 101° | — | — | 89–101° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 93° | 95° | 96° | 94° | 83° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 98° | 98° | 96° | 95° | 100° | — | — | 95–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 97° | 96° | 96° | 88° | 100° | 100° | — | 88–100° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 96° | 95° | 100° | 97° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 95–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 96° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 101° | 97° | 99° | 95–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 96° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 101° | 101° | 98° | 96–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 101° | 98° | 98° | 96–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 96° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 96° | 96–100° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 96° | 97° | 99° | 97° | 100° | 93° | 98° | 93–100° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.