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Which weather model is most accurate in San Antonio?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for San Antonio at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the SAT observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF IFS (2.04°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 1.52°C at 1-day lead over this window.

San Antonio's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
UKMO (UK) 1.1° (-0.7°) 1.3° (-0.6°) — 29
DWD ICON 1.1° (-0.3°) 1.5° (-0.1°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 1.2° (-0.4°) 1.4° (-0.1°) 2.0° (-1.0°) 29
GEM (Canada) 1.2° (-0.7°) 1.5° (-0.6°) 2.7° (-2.0°) 29
NOAA GFS 1.2° (-0.2°) 1.2° (-0.1°) 3.0° (-0.9°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.3° (-1.1°) 1.4° (-1.2°) 2.3° (-1.7°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.6° (-1.5°) 1.6° (-1.5°) 2.8° (-1.4°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's San Antonio point is the San Antonio International station (SAT), 12 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at San Antonio International (SAT) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 24. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 13 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 25–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.9°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 22–31; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 26–35; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 2.4°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 25–36; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 27–37; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 1.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 24–38; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 34–35; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 37. GEM led (off 1.1°C); UKMO ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.4°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 30–39; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 29–39; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.7°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 35–39; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 13 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 12 days out the models said 34–37; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 11 days out the models said 37–38; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 10 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 9 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 8 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
  • Tue Sep 1 7 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 6 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 5 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 4 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 3 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.

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