Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sun Aug 30?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

5 days out, 7 models put San Antonio's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 35° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the SAT observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 1° cool.

5 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-08-25	37°	37°	35°	36°	38°	38°	37°	35–38°
4d · 2026-08-26	36°	37°	38°	33°	38°	36°	35°	33–38°
3d · 2026-08-27	36°	37°	37°	35°	37°	37°	35°	35–37°
2d · 2026-08-28	36°	36°	37°	36°	36°	37°	36°	36–37°
1d · 2026-08-29	36°	36°	36°	36°	36°	37°	36°	36–37°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.