Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sun Aug 30?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
5 days out, 7 models put San Antonio's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 96° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 98° against the SAT observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 98° | 99° | 96° | 96° | 100° | 101° | 99° | 96–101° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 97° | 99° | 100° | 92° | 100° | 97° | 95° | 92–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 97° | 99° | 99° | 95° | 99° | 98° | 94° | 94–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 97° | 98° | 98° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 96–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 97° | 99° | 96° | 96–99° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.