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Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Mon Sep 21?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 31° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 37° against the SAT observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.3°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.

14 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 1.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-06 — 38° — — 25° — — 25–38°
14d · 2026-09-07 33° 31° 33° — 36° — — 31–36°
13d · 2026-09-08 29° 26° 27° — 37° — — 26–37°
12d · 2026-09-09 33° 28° 34° — 35° — — 28–35°
11d · 2026-09-10 31° 33° 31° — 34° — — 31–34°
10d · 2026-09-11 35° 29° 31° — 35° — — 29–35°
9d · 2026-09-12 35° 32° 31° 36° 30° — — 30–36°
8d · 2026-09-13 33° 35° 35° 35° 34° — — 33–35°
7d · 2026-09-14 32° 34° 35° 34° 36° — — 32–36°
6d · 2026-09-15 33° 34° 36° 35° 37° 37° 34° 33–37°
5d · 2026-09-16 33° 34° 36° 35° 37° 38° 35° 33–38°
4d · 2026-09-17 34° 34° 36° 35° 37° 37° 34° 34–37°
3d · 2026-09-18 35° 33° 37° 35° 37° 37° 35° 33–37°
2d · 2026-09-19 34° 34° 34° 35° 37° 35° 32° 32–37°
1d · 2026-09-20 35° 33° 36° 35° 35° 35° 36° 33–36°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.