Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Mon Sep 21?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 88° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 99° against the SAT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 2.3°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 100° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 91° | 88° | 91° | — | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 84° | 79° | 80° | — | 98° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 92° | 82° | 94° | — | 95° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 92° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 95° | 84° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 89° | 87° | 96° | 86° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 92° | 95° | 95° | 94° | 92° | — | — | 92–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 90° | 94° | 95° | 92° | 96° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 92° | 94° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 99° | 93° | 92–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 92° | 94° | 98° | 95° | 98° | 100° | 95° | 92–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 94° | 93° | 98° | 95° | 99° | 99° | 94° | 93–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 94° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 99° | 98° | 94° | 92–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 93° | 92° | 94° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 90° | 90–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 94° | 92° | 97° | 95° | 95° | 95° | 97° | 92–97° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.