The Spread

Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Wed Sep 2?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

8 days out, 5 models put San Antonio's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 37° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°.

8 days out the models said 37–39; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-08-25 38° 37° 37° 37° 39° — — 37–39°
7d · 2026-08-26 38° 37° 36° 36° 37° — — 36–38°
6d · 2026-08-27 38° 37° 35° 37° 39° 38° — 35–39°
5d · 2026-08-28 38° 37° 38° 37° 37° 38° 36° 36–38°
4d · 2026-08-29 37° 36° 38° 37° 37° 38° 37° 36–38°
3d · 2026-08-30 37° 37° 38° 38° 36° 38° 37° 36–38°
2d · 2026-08-31 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37–38°
1d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 38° 37–38°
0d · 2026-09-02 37° 37° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.