The Spread

Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Sep 4?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

10 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 33° against the SAT observations — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 5° cold.

10 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 5°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-25 36° 37° 37° — 39° — — 36–39°
9d · 2026-08-26 37° 37° 35° — 37° — — 35–37°
8d · 2026-08-27 37° 37° 37° 36° 37° — — 36–37°
7d · 2026-08-28 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° — — 36–38°
6d · 2026-08-29 38° 36° 38° 35° 38° 35° — 35–38°
5d · 2026-08-30 36° 26° 37° 36° 31° 39° 37° 26–39°
4d · 2026-08-31 37° 37° 38° 34° 38° 38° 36° 34–38°
3d · 2026-09-01 33° 36° 36° 36° 38° 37° 34° 33–38°
2d · 2026-09-02 33° 36° 38° 36° 37° 37° 32° 32–38°
1d · 2026-09-03 34° 33° 37° 35° 28° 34° 36° 28–37°
0d · 2026-09-04 35° 35° 36° 35° 28° 36° 34° 28–36°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.