Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Sep 4?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
10 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 34° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 33° against the SAT observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 37° | 37° | 38° | — | 34° | — | — | 34–38° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 37° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 39° | — | — | 36–39° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 37° | 37° | 37° | 36° | 38° | — | — | 36–38° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 37° | 33° | 36° | 36° | 38° | — | — | 33–38° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 37° | 30° | 34° | 37° | 37° | 39° | 34° | 30–39° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 32° | 29° | 38° | 35° | 37° | 39° | 36° | 29–39° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 33° | 33° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 38° | 36° | 33–38° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 33° | 36° | 36° | 36° | 36° | 36° | 30° | 30–36° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 33° | 33° | 37° | 36° | 28° | 36° | 35° | 28–37° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 35° | 35° | 36° | 35° | 28° | 36° | 34° | 28–36° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.