Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Thu Sep 3?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

9 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations — thunderstorms.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

9 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
9d · 2026-08-25	37°	37°	36°	—	39°	—	—	36–39°
8d · 2026-08-26	38°	37°	37°	37°	37°	—	—	37–38°
7d · 2026-08-27	37°	37°	36°	36°	39°	—	—	36–39°
6d · 2026-08-28	37°	36°	37°	36°	38°	37°	—	36–38°
5d · 2026-08-29	38°	36°	38°	37°	37°	35°	36°	35–38°
4d · 2026-08-30	37°	34°	38°	38°	30°	39°	36°	30–39°
3d · 2026-08-31	37°	37°	39°	36°	38°	39°	37°	36–39°
2d · 2026-09-01	36°	37°	38°	37°	37°	39°	35°	35–39°
1d · 2026-09-02	36°	37°	39°	37°	38°	38°	38°	36–39°
0d · 2026-09-03	36°	38°	39°	38°	38°	38°	39°	36–39°
actual								38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.