The Spread

Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Tue Sep 1?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

7 days out, 5 models put San Antonio's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the SAT observations — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 1° hot.

7 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-25 38° 37° 37° 36° 39° — — 36–39°
6d · 2026-08-26 38° 37° 37° 35° 37° 38° — 35–38°
5d · 2026-08-27 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
4d · 2026-08-28 37° 37° 38° 36° 37° 38° 37° 36–38°
3d · 2026-08-29 37° 36° 38° 36° 37° 38° 36° 36–38°
2d · 2026-08-30 37° 37° 38° 36° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
1d · 2026-08-31 36° 36° 37° 36° 37° 37° 37° 36–37°
0d · 2026-09-01 36° 36° 37° 36° 37° 38° 36° 36–38°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.