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Which weather model is most accurate in Dallas?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Dallas at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DAL observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, NOAA GFS has been most accurate (typical miss 0.95°C); at three days, NOAA GFS (1.32°C); at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 2.06°C at 3-day lead over this window.

Dallas's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA GFS 0.9° (-0.1°) 1.3° (+0.2°) 3.2° (-0.5°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.2° (-0.9°) 1.9° (-1.2°) — 29
DWD ICON 1.3° (-0.7°) 1.7° (-0.8°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 1.6° (-1.1°) 1.7° (-0.9°) 3.1° (-2.7°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.7° (-1.6°) 1.9° (-1.7°) 3.0° (-1.5°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.8° (-1.3°) 1.9° (-1.1°) 3.2° (-1.7°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.0° (-1.9°) 2.3° (-2.1°) 3.2° (-2.7°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Dallas point is the Love Field station (DAL), 8.9 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Love Field (DAL) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 21–26; it hit 19. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 4°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 21–32; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 15–30; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 18–27; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 22–31; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 20–29; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 23–30; it hit 31. GFS led (off 1.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 18–32; it hit 30. GFS led (off 1.6°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 24–35; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 23–30; it hit 24. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 27. GFS led (off 1.7°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 24–36; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 29–37; it hit 34. GFS led (off 1.0°C); GEM ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 23–34; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 26–38; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 23–38; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 30–41; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 30–42; it hit 37. AIFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C).
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 31–41; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 36–40; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 28–36; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 30–39; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 30–43; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 35–42; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.9°C); UKMO ran 6°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ICON ran 5°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 13 days out the models said 37–40; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 12 days out the models said 37–40; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 11 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 10 days out the models said 38–41; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 9 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C).
  • Fri Aug 28 8 days out the models said 35–41; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 7 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 6 days out the models said 38–42; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 5 days out the models said 40–44; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.8°C); UKMO ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 24 4 days out the models said 40–43; it hit 42. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 36–44; it hit 41. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 41. GFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 40. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 37–42; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 39–42; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 1°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 39–42; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 37. AIFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.9°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 36–40; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 33–42; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 31–42; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 33–40; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 34–40; it hit 39. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 37–43; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.

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