The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Sep 12?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 31° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

13 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 39. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 — 36° — — 43° — — 36–43°
14d · 2026-08-29 37° 37° — — 38° — — 37–38°
13d · 2026-08-30 31° 33° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
12d · 2026-08-31 34° 37° 34° — 40° — — 34–40°
11d · 2026-09-01 38° 35° 32° — 31° — — 31–38°
10d · 2026-09-02 38° 37° 33° — 37° — — 33–38°
9d · 2026-09-03 39° 36° 38° — 40° — — 36–40°
8d · 2026-09-04 36° 39° 38° 38° 41° — — 36–41°
7d · 2026-09-05 37° 33° 39° 30° 39° — — 30–39°
6d · 2026-09-06 35° 36° 39° 39° 37° 41° — 35–41°
5d · 2026-09-07 37° 38° 40° 36° 40° 41° 37° 36–41°
4d · 2026-09-08 37° 37° 39° 38° 38° 40° 39° 37–40°
3d · 2026-09-09 37° 37° 39° 38° 39° 39° 37° 37–39°
2d · 2026-09-10 36° 36° 38° 38° 39° 40° 38° 36–40°
1d · 2026-09-11 37° 38° 39° 39° 40° 39° 40° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-12 36° 38° 38° 38° 40° 39° 39° 36–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.